A Critical Geopolitical Assessment of Power, Law, and Precedent
Executive Overview
On January 3, 2026, the United States executed its most consequential military intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama. In a coordinated operation involving air strikes, naval assets, and elite special forces, US forces struck Venezuelan military and infrastructure targets and reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, removing them from Venezuelan territory.
Announced personally by Donald Trump via Truth Social, the operation represents a watershed moment in hemispheric geopolitics. It marks the first openly acknowledged US military action aimed at forcibly removing a sitting Latin American head of state in the post–Cold War era. Beyond its immediate tactical success, the operation has ignited a profound international crisis—raising fundamental questions about international law, state sovereignty, regional stability, and the future of the rules-based global order.
This report critically examines the January 3 operation not merely as a military event, but as the culmination of a five-month escalation campaign that reveals deeper strategic objectives, contradictions in US policy, and dangerous precedents with global ramifications.
The January 3, 2026 Operation: Tactical Success, Strategic Shock
Sequence of Events
At approximately 2:00 AM local time, residents of Caracas and surrounding regions were awakened by sustained explosions and low-flying aircraft. Over a thirty-minute window, US forces struck multiple high-value targets including Fort Tiuna, Generalissimo Francisco de Miranda Air Base, La Guaira port, Cerro El Volcán communications infrastructure, and Higuerote Airport. Several installations reportedly lost power entirely, and smoke was observed rising from aircraft hangars and command facilities.
While these strikes degraded Venezuelan military command-and-control capacity, their primary objective was political rather than purely military: the capture of the Venezuelan head of state.
The Capture Operation
According to US officials briefing American media, the operation against Maduro was executed by Delta Force, the US Army’s elite counterterrorism and special missions unit. The mission echoes prior high-profile raids such as the 2019 operation against ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, signaling Washington’s intent to frame Maduro as a criminal target rather than a sovereign leader.
At 5:21 AM, Trump publicly declared the operation a success, stating that Maduro had been “captured and flown out of the country.” Venezuelan authorities did not deny Maduro’s disappearance; instead, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez demanded proof of life, implicitly confirming the operation’s success.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later informed senators that Maduro would face criminal proceedings in the United States, though no details regarding detention location or legal process were disclosed.
The Five-Month Escalation Campaign (August 2025 – January 2026)
The January 3 strikes were not a spontaneous decision but the final stage of a carefully sequenced pressure campaign initiated months earlier.
Phase One: Military Buildup (August 2025)
In August 2025, the Trump administration launched Operation Southern Spear, deploying the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, guided-missile destroyers, and special operations vessels into the Caribbean. Approximately 12,000 US personnel were positioned in the region.
Simultaneously, Trump doubled the US bounty on Maduro from $25 million to $50 million and quietly authorized expanded military authority against Latin American drug networks—blurring the line between counternarcotics and regime-change operations.
Phase Two: Maritime Strikes (September–November 2025)
Beginning in September, US naval forces conducted lethal strikes against small vessels alleged to be transporting narcotics. According to US figures, between 87 and 115 people were killed. However, regional governments and families of victims disputed these claims, asserting that many were civilian fishermen.
Of particular concern were reports of so-called “double-tap” strikes—attacks on vessels or sites after initial strikes, potentially targeting rescuers. Such tactics have long been controversial under international humanitarian law.
In November, Trump declared Venezuelan airspace “effectively closed,” signaling a de facto assertion of air denial without formal war declaration.
Phase Three: Blockade and Covert Actions (December 2025)
December marked a decisive escalation. The US imposed what it described as a “total and complete blockade” on Venezuelan oil exports, seizing tankers and threatening interdiction. The blockade—unilateral and unenforced by the UN—was widely criticized as an illegal use of force.
Covert actions reportedly included CIA-linked drone strikes on port facilities, culminating in Trump’s acknowledgment of a direct land strike inside Venezuela—the first of its kind.
Phase Four: Regime Decapitation (January 2026)
The January 3 operation completed the escalation arc, transitioning from indirect pressure to overt regime decapitation.
Official Justifications vs. Strategic Reality
The Drug Trafficking Narrative
The Trump administration framed its actions as part of a war against “narco-terrorism,” citing US indictments against Maduro and the designation of Venezuelan groups as terrorist organizations.
However, this narrative suffers from significant credibility gaps. Most notably, Trump’s January 2026 pardon of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted of major drug offenses, undermines claims of principled drug enforcement.
Geopolitical Objectives: Hemispheric Control
A deeper reading of US strategic documents reveals the operation’s core motivation: reasserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly prioritizes Latin America and frames Chinese, Russian, and Iranian engagement as unacceptable encroachments.
Venezuela’s vast oil reserves—among the largest globally—combined with its partnerships with Beijing and Moscow made Maduro’s government a strategic obstacle rather than merely a criminal problem.
Domestic Political Incentives
Maduro’s removal also serves domestic US political objectives, providing Trump with a decisive foreign policy “win” after earlier failed coup attempts during his first term.
The International Law Crisis
UN Charter Violations
The operation violates Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against another state’s sovereignty. No UN Security Council authorization was sought or obtained, and no credible self-defense claim was established.
Blockade as Armed Attack
Legal experts argue that the naval blockade alone constitutes an act of war under international law, further compounding the violation.
US Constitutional Concerns
Domestically, the operation raises serious questions under the War Powers Resolution. While administration allies argue inherent presidential authority, this interpretation remains highly contested.
Global Reactions: A Fractured International Response
Condemnation
Russia, Iran, Cuba, and China denounced the strikes as illegal aggression. Iran explicitly cited UN Charter violations, while Moscow characterized the operation as state terrorism.
Regional Alarm
Latin American leaders—including Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Brazil’s government—warned of regional destabilization and humanitarian fallout.
Limited Support
Argentina’s Javier Milei welcomed Maduro’s removal, reflecting ideological alignment rather than regional consensus.
Post-Maduro Venezuela: Power Vacuum and Uncertainty
Democratic Transition Prospects
Opposition figures María Corina Machado and Edmundo González are positioned to lead a transition, having been widely recognized internationally after the disputed 2024 election.
Risks of Fragmentation
The Venezuelan military, criminal syndicates such as Tren de Aragua, and pro-regime militias present major obstacles. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López remains a pivotal actor whose loyalty will shape outcomes.
Occupation and Reconstruction Dilemmas
If instability escalates, the US may face pressure to maintain a military presence—precisely the scenario critics warned against.
Strategic Implications Beyond Venezuela
Hemispheric Power Shift
The operation reasserts US dominance in Latin America but risks provoking counter-moves by China and Russia elsewhere.
Erosion of International Norms
By bypassing international law, Washington weakens the very order it claims to defend—providing justification for similar actions by other powers.
Lessons for Global Audiences
For regions such as South Asia, the Venezuela operation illustrates a troubling reality: sovereignty increasingly depends on geopolitical alignment, not legal principle.
Conclusion
The capture of Nicolás Maduro is not merely the fall of a regime—it is a stress test for international law, regional stability, and the credibility of the global order. While tactically successful, the operation leaves unresolved questions that will shape global politics for years to come. Whether it marks the restoration of American power or the acceleration of global disorder remains an open—and urgent—question.